Forecasting bounds in light of over significant time

Forecasting is the way toward making
expectations without bounds in light of over significant time span information
and most ordinarily by examination of patterns. A typical case may be
estimation of some factor of enthusiasm at some predetermined future date.
Expectation is a comparable, yet broader term. Both may allude to formal
factual strategies utilizing time arrangement, cross-sectional or longitudinal
information, or on the other hand to less formal judgmental techniques.

Forecasting is used in Accounting, Finance, Human Resources,
Marketing, MIS, Operations and Product/service design to enhance and each
department and be pro-active.

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Good forecasting elements can be divided to

·     
Timely

·     
Accurate

·     
Reliable

·     
Meaningful

·     
Documented

·     
Easy to understand

 

 

Naïve methods

This technique is fitting for time arrangement information.
All estimates are essentially set to be the estimation of the last perception. This
technique works strikingly well for some monetary and money related time
arrangement.  There are 4 types for Naïve
methods.

 

Simple Average

Moving average

Weighted moving average

Exponential smoothing

 

Other forecasting methods

 

 Trend analysis 

Trend forecasting is quantitative forecasting, meaning its
forecasting is based on tangible, concrete numbers from the past. It uses time
series data, which is data where the numerical value is known over different
points in time. Typically, this numerical data is plotted on a graph, with the
horizontal x-axis being used to plot time, such as the year, and the y-data
being used to plot the information you are trying to predict, such as sales
amounts or number of people. There are several different types of patterns that
tend to appear on a time-series graph.

 

In this case two methods were applied:

The first forecasting method used was the  Liner  Trend
analysis using Microsoft excel as a tool but this method showed awkward
notation between time serious and sales units due to instability in Egyptian
economy in year 2016 the sales falls sharply because of the sacristy of the US
dollars before flotation of Egyptian pound.  R² = 0.0072. Figure 1.1